[META] Recent scam/spam trends.. Or, a peak inside what it's like to moderate /r/forex
After a few...especially trying...interactions with unhappy ban recipients today, I thought it would be fun to share a little info on what moderators do to keep this place clean. :) The forex industry is full of shady characters. Any industry sitting on the intersection of financial independence, work, and money, is bound to attract them. There are many reasons for this; the lower barrier to entry compared to other markets, the lack of public knowledge on the subject, and greedy human nature to name a few. Moderating a subreddit dedicated to forex (or anything trading realted for that matter,) presents extra challenges beyond your regular sub. Marketers and scammers are super motivated, and MLM / referral marketing is extremely popular right now, which can turn everyday regular users into sources of spam. How we currently tackle this problem involves technology (scripts, bots, and automod,) a mod review workflow, and some smart sleuthing when needed. The mod team and our scripts aren't perfect though... but the few false positives we get are a very, very small fraction of all mod actions taken (~1%.) Unfortunately, that means some otherwise sincere members get handled roughly, and that can really suck.. I wish there was a better way, but the alternative is this place becomes a wild west and starts looking like your gmail spam folder. That said, here's my personal stats for JUST the last 24 hours:
Bans: 14[edit:16 nowbefore day's end, two more responding to a 'where can I learn how to trade' post.]
All mod actions (including bans, post and comment removal, etc..): 63
Ban appeals: 2
And I'm just one of the mods. . . So what scammer and marketing trends are we seeing lately?
Content marketing - Infographics with instagram handles watermarked in them, or a blog-like post with a embedded links to their own site.
Personal/direct selling - trying to move the conversation out of public view, usually by taking things to DM, or promoting a 3rd party chatroom where the rules here no longer apply.
Shills - Fake accounts used to boost the credit of another user, or service. It's no coincidence that a user asking about 'ULRA PRO SIGNALZ' will quickly have 5+ replies by low karma, new users, saying how great the service is. [edit:here's an example I just caught..]
Fake P/L Porn - We see this quite often. It's easy to fake MT4 account statements and MT4 Mobile screenshots, and new users can't tell the difference so these posts will get a lot of undeserved attention. When people ask how OP made such mad cash, a sales pitch is usually coming right up.
Honestly, it can be really frustrating at times.. luckily the scripts we have in place make weeding out ~80% of these jokers quite easy and quick. Heck, we had one scammer who blew through 12+ accounts over the last few days trying to scam people but none of their posts ever saw the light of day thanks to the spam triggers I've written. What motivates the mod team to keep this place clean? That's an easy answer: The majority of users here are new to trading. Making sure they aren't food for the wolves is important. But even with all the measures we take, some bad actors still get through. So here's where you can help: Use the report button! Anytime you see something that you think fits the descriptions listed above, or violates our sidebar rules, just report it. Even if you're not 100% sure, don't be afraid to use the report tool.. The worst thing that can happen is the mod team reviews and approves it, but the best outcome is you directly help keep this place clean and humming! :) And the mod team is always looking to improve where it can: I've already talked about what we do to scrub away bad actors, but one place we could do better is education. The plan is to rewrite a good portion of the wiki to include the following sections:
Spotting scams and scammers
How to properly compare brokers and regulatory bodies
The real reason why your old high school friend wants you to sign up to IML, and 10 ways to politely tell him to pound sand
No, that hot instagram model won't sleep with you if you buy her online course
Why all signal services are trash and can die in a fire
(Titles above are a work in progress ;P) Are you a good writer and want to help out with this? Think you can write up a killer wiki article on spotting scam artists? Message the mods and let us know! Finally, a reminder, we are still interested in taking on more moderators and will be revisiting that very shortly. If you'd be interested, read through this post and reply accordingly: https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/h7ok6k/seeking_more_mods_recruitment_thread/
Creating a blog couldn’t be easier and yet more complicated in 2020. There are so many different things to think about, and yet so many different platforms you can use to streamline the process. Understandably you’ll already have an idea of what you want to write about, I, unfortunately, can’t help you with that, but what I can do is show you how you can set up a killer blog that will drive readers to your website. We’ll take you through what you’ll need to get started, our five steps to setting your blog up, the best blogging platforms to use, how to get your blog discovered, and the do’s and don’ts of blogging. But first, we need to establish what type of blog you want to set up.
What type of blog?
Firstly you’ll want to have a goal in mind. What are you aiming to achieve through your blog? Do you want to pull in more users to your sales pages by writing about your brand, to increase its publicity? Do you want to build a blog that promotes brands and products from other companies? Or do you just want to set up a blog documenting your travels around the world? In order to pick the right software for you, you’ll want to have a grasp before you start of how big this blog is going to be, whether you’re going to monetize it, and what type of blog it’s going to become. For example, if you’re planning on building an affiliate blogging programme, where you promote other brand’s products and call readers to action to but the products, you’ll be writing a lot of content and will benefit from having a more comprehensive blogging system with lots of plugins to promote sales. But if you’re looking to just set up a personal, or a personal brand blog talking about yourself and your brand, you may not perhaps need as many comprehensive features as you would if you were building an affiliate blog. You may also want to build an online portfolio of your work, which could require an entirely different piece of blogging kit, as opposed to the traditional blog that hosts articles and journals.
What you’ll need to get started.
There are 3 key things you’ll need to get up and running.
A blogging platform.
After you’ve identified the type of blog you want to set up, plus whether you’re going to make money from it, you’ll then need to pick a blogging platform tailored to your needs. Many people chose to operate on WordPress as it is one of the most comprehensive blogging systems going, but they forget platforms like Wix and Squarespace that are great for both helping you save and make money and are great options for those who are less tech-savvy and are new to the blogging game. Plus if you’re blogging for business, you might want to think about using LinkedIn for your business blog. We’ll go into more detail on what blogging platforms are best for your needs shortly, but make sure to keep in mind your objectives and technical experience when choosing the right platform for you.
A hosting platform.
Every website needs a web host to store their website’s information on the internet. A web host is an online service provider that will store your website’s information on one of its online servers. This will put your blog out there to the world. The best web hosts will perform a variety of functions for you, for example, Wix is an all-in-one package that will host your website for you, allow you to register a domain name, and has easy to use website design tools to help you start your blog. Web hosting can be expensive though so make sure you pick the best value for money host that can cater to the amount of traffic you have running through your website. Check out our post on the 11 best hosting providers. [Insert blog link here]
A domain name.
I’m sure by now you already know what sort of blog you want to set up, whether that’s a travel, blog, a blog accompanying your online store, or perhaps an affiliate marketing product review blog. You’ll have a niche and an idea and now all you need is a name. Every website online has what’s called a domain name. It’s included in the website address at the top of your search bar, for example, our domain name is www.digitalsupermarket.com. You’ll need to register a domain name after you purchase a hosting plan, to enable customers to find your site quickly and easily. One good tip is to find a hosting platform like Bluehost or GoDaddy that will provide you with a free domain name when you register for one of their web hosting plans as domain registration can be fairly pricey. Pick a great domain name that is easy for customers to read and type into Google so they can find it easier online. TOP TIP: To increase your blog’s search engine ranking, and to help more people find you on Google, try to pick a domain name that has either a .com or .co.uk ending. These domains often rank a lot higher in Google searches than .org’s, .net’s, and .info’s, and for that reason can be slightly more expensive, yet can help boost your site’s reach and credibility.
The Best Blogging Platforms For You.
There are a wealth of platforms out there catering to all your blogging or online portfolio needs. We have listed some of the main ones below shedding some light on what needs they service and why they might be a great option for you.
WordPress - The best software to give you full customisation.
WordPress is perhaps one of the most renowned blogging platforms in the world, running approximately 35% of the internet. It’s favoured highly by professional bloggers because it gives you total freedom to do whatever you want with your blog. WordPress can help you build your blog using one if its search engine optimised themes, you can customise using its drag and drop website builder tool to create a stunning blog. What’s more, is you’ll be able to use its professional blogging service to post your content online and take advantage of the hundreds of third party app plugins, you can integrate into your blog, to improve automation, add new features, and drive traffic to your site. The only downside of WordPress is that it can be quite technical and can take some time getting used to, but once you’ve got the hang of things, you’ll have great control over everything on your webpage. Pros: Cons:
Domain name registration
Tons of third-party plugins and apps
Technical and can take some getting used to
Not the best if you’re not tech-savvy or are just starting out.
Wix - Best for monetizing your site.
Wix is probably the most streamlined and easiest blog providers. It’s so simple and easy to use, it’s therefore great for anyone just starting out in the blogging world. You can customise one of its stunning templates with Wix’s drag and drop editor, and then upload blog posts to your site by slotting in pictures, gifs, social media buttons, sidebars, and other widgets that will help your blog stand out. One of the coolest features about Wix is its marketplace integration, where you can install a whole variety of third-party applications to your blog to provide your users with greater features and usability. Wix is the perfect all-in-one blogging solution to help you easily build a platform to amplify your business to the world, helping you to make more money, but it can also save you a lot of money as it’s cost-efficient plans roll up, web hosting, blog posting, and domain registration all into one product! Check out our Wix review and our comparison of Wix and Squarespace for a deep dive into Wix’s main blogging features. [Insert link here] Pros: Cons:
Streamlined and easy to use blogging software
Includes as a package, web building tools, domain registration, and web hosting
Tons of third-party plugins and apps on the Wix marketplace
Great platform to help make money and save money on its reasonably priced subscription plans
Don’t get the same full control as you see with WordPress
Locked into using Wix’s templates.
Squarespace - Best for creating visually stunning blogs.
Squarespace is very similar to Wix, in that it is an all-in-one web building and blogging platform that can help you build a blog you can monetize efficiently. It sets itself aside though through its better design and customisation features, making it one of the best platforms on the marketing if you’re looking to design a visually aesthetic blog. I’d recommend using this platform if you are a business operating in some sort of design, arts, or culinary industry. Although it offers minimal template options, Squarespace’s templates are works of art and offer you great customization when building your blog. Plus Squarespace offers a great blogging tool that lets you schedule posts and customize your blog to suit more mobile audiences. Pros: Cons:
Streamlined and easy to use blogging software
Can build a visually stunning blog on Squarespace with its streamlined tools
Excellent blogging features
All-in-one web host, domain registrar, and web builder
Can’t add third-party applications on Squarespace
LinkedIn - Best for blogging businesses.
Aside from setting up a blog on your own site, corporate entities can use LinkedIn to enhance and amplify their presence online. LinkedIn has more than 575 million users, most of whom are professionals and members of corporate conglomerates, and you can use this social platform to target some of the most influential people in the world. If you’re blogging about business this is the perfect platform to use a pre-existing community of people to enhance your social standing. You’ll then be able to build connections and followers on your profile who can easily share your blog on their platform through a couple of simple clicks. Pros: Cons:
Utilise LinkedIn’s pre-existing community of business people to amplify your brand
Target corporate directors and influential people directly through LinkedIn
Check out what people are looking at on LinkedIn and tailor your content to that market
Again you are confined within what LinkedIn’s platform will let you do, it’s not your site and you don’t have full customisation
Instagram - Best for the Artists.
Instagram is one of the biggest blogging sites in the world and without realising it, we are all technically bloggers in some way with our Instagram accounts, right? Ultimately for professional use, it is great for building a portfolio that has some form of visual or graphic eye-catching media around it. Instagram lets you post videos, photos, boomerangs, even write a blog in the photo’s caption if you wanted to! Best of all, Instagram is free, and you can use its business software to link up your online store, to drag users away from your profile, using its product tagging features, and land them in your online checkouts. Our top tip for using Instagram is to post regularly and keep on the theme of your blog. Don’t go off-piste as you’re followers will catch on quickly and unfollow you. And with 1 billion people using the platform each day, it is a great way to gain people’s attention and build your brand’s presence online. Pros: Cons:
Best for the creatives.
Totally free and easy to use interface.
Access to a pre-existing community of people.
Online selling capabilities.
Again you are confined within what Instagram’s platform will let you do, it’s not your site and you don’t have full customisation
The Do’s And Don’ts Of Blogging
Here are a couple of top tips to bear in mind when building your blog to help you create an awesome, lead driven platform.
Don’t use complicated language too soon.
With that in mind, do include language that your target audience will understand. But remember they are still here to learn, so don’t drop people in at the deep end right away by using complex jargon off the bat. Define terms and spell it out in layman’s terms for people at the outset, and as the post goes on, then introduce more complex writing. Introducing technical jargon at the start of your posts is an instant turn off for most readers.
Don’t waffle - Keep it succinct.
People want to get to the punchline now. 43% of people admit to skimming through blogs to get to the information they need, meaning to get your blogging site converting leads, you need to engage the reader early on and offer information succinctly throughout your post. Plus don’t make your blog too long. Depending on what you’re writing, a lot of people will see large volumes of text and will switch off immediately. There is no set limit for what a good and bad amount of text is, that’s something you’ll have to figure out per your industry, but from my experience, the shorter, the better.
Don’t make headlines too long.
Also ensure that your headline is not more than 60 characters long. If it gets too long it won’t rank well in search engines and people just won’t want to read it. Check out this headline analysis tool which will analyse the effectiveness of your proposed headlines.
Don’t plagiarise or use credited images.
Copying other people’s work is lazy and can land you in a lot of hot water in extreme cases if you breach a copyright regulation. But it’s also just unfair on the person who has worked hard or been creative to write that work. The same goes for images, people need to make a living from the content and photos they’re taking so don’t steal that off them.
Do write killer headlines.
People are like goldfish. You only have about 3 seconds to get their attention. That’s why it is important to write catchy, funny, and enticing headlines to draw your reader in. One good way to do it is to use the “How To” and “10 Best” strategies. These sorts of titles telling people ‘How to set up a blog’ or ‘the ten best web hosting platforms’ are search engine optimised, lead winning titles that rank highly in Google searches. Try them out and see!
Do post regularly.
The key to creating a great blog that builds leads is posting regularly. Although it is not the best idea to post regularly. Ideally, you want to post 3-4 times a week to get the best influx of traffic to your site. You’ll also want to check out when’s best to post for your target audience, for example, if you’re in the FOREX market, you’ll want to post your blogs perhaps at 8 AM, before the markets open when city workers are on their staring at their phones on their morning commuter trains to the city.
Do share on social media.
Share your content far and wide on your social platforms. Everyone is on social media these days and its outreach is simply phenomenal. That’s why you should always share your posts to your social channels to get greater traffic on your website, and include share buttons all-around your blog to invite your readers to share your articles too!
Do use SEO keywords to drive more traffic.
In a nutshell, SEO keywords are the phrases people put into search engines when they are looking for information on a certain subject. They are how you get found on your website. Depending on what you are writing about, there is always a set of keywords relating to that topic that you can implement, to help you show up higher in people’s google searches. For example, people might regularly search in google, ‘what is the best compost for growing sunflowers?’ When you come to writing about growing sunflowers in your blog, you might want to use these words or incorporate this question into your blog somewhere, to help you rank higher on Google.
Do use call’s to action to take your readers to the next step.
If you don’t challenge your reader at the end of your blog to follow you on Instagram, or check out your sales pages, you’ll never get the leads or sales you are looking for. With that in mind, build compelling calls to action at the end of each of your posts, to pull readers into taking the next step. Check out our post on landing pages to see a couple of cool ways on how to implement calls to action on your site [insert link here].
Do identify a target audience.
People will often tell you to write as though you were in the shoes of the person you’re looking to bring to your website, but it’s true! Identify what type of people you’re writing to, for instance, if you’re writing a business blog about FOREX trading, you’ll write with potential traders in mind who have one eye on the stock market and the other on your blog. Or if you’re a wedding florist, you’ll set your portfolio up to target those people looking to get married in the next year.
Leads, Sales, Results.
Blogging is one of the most influential marketing strategies in the world and the best bloggers can reap some awesome rewards for producing some truly awesome content. It is fairly straightforward to get started and we advise if you’re a small business, or someone with minimal blogging experience, to try out Wix or Squarespace first before you jump into using more technical platforms like WordPress. Once you’re up and running remember our top tips on what to do and what to avoid when writing your blog. Plus don’t forget to think about optimising and adding useful applications to your site to help you build and grow your content. Check out these 39 awesome blogging tools you can use to drive greater traffic to your site! Found this article useful? Make sure you share it with your friends on Facebook and Twitter and let us know in the comments if you have any other useful blogging tips.
funny to see that subject pop up again. it was what drove me insane enough to find this sub in the first place. at any rate, the problem is not the bots. I thought it was, but those are just part of the parasitic ecosystem. but to get that, first we need to take a few steps back on web history, ad serving, UX, tracking technology and media advertising. too lazy to gather links, but you know, do your googlin'. I assume that most of you are fairly web literate here, but I'll try to go down into the bare bones as much as possible for those who aren't. so let's start with a basic question - what is a web visitor anyway? from the standpoint of a normal person, that would be a person browsing a given website or piece of content. from the standpoint of technology however all you know is that some device has downloaded content from your server using the http protocol. thanks to the wonderful technology of web browsers, you can plant browser cookies on a visitor - stuff that's used to remember if they logged in, what their preferences are, stuff that your service can read from the device. it also serves usually very basic telemetry like last visit time, session time, and so on. this, over time has evolved in what we call browser fingerprinting, a convoluted bunch of technology that allows websites and web services to uniquely identify you. it still doesn't know if you're a human or not, but from the standpoint of the web technology, you're a visitor. now back in ye old days of the web, when the first banner ads were springing up, these were important questions. most consumers were still to be reached on traditional media channels, and ad spend would have to be justified somehow on the risky ventures of online business. so beyond traditional polls that would infer the value of visitors, websites would start tracking number of visitors, time on page and so on. these were used to milk the advertising cow so to speak, and it gave in to some funny developments like the creation of the popup ad - if I recon correctly on geocities, where they would just but the ads everywhere until some big auto company noticed that they're appearing on porn sites. so - put the ad in the popup, and you can claim it's not in the context of porn! around this point in time the online ad business is still pretty low tech. you actually have to call a physical human being, they send you ppts and pdfs, you send back image files and excel sheets, you wire money, the ads run, and so on. this is called direct sales, and it's tracked again by counting a bunch of visitors, and telling you how much impressions and clicks your marvelous creatives and ad budget generated. now enter google - or more precisely, a technology firm called doubleclick that was to be acquired by google. they developed a tool for automatic ad serving, later to be called programmatic advertising, that keeps the pesky sales dude out of the loop and achieves reasonable amounts of scale for a more hefty price - after all, if the sales are automated, you get a bidding war for attention between different advertisers, and you're paying for clicks. so you can see how this was a strategic move for google - they already had the most valuable data available in this situation. they were seeing in real time what people were searching for, and using the programmatic ad serving system, you could effectively bid not just for general attention - but for attention with an intent to buy. ...and the way that google got this data is because they indexed the web, using bots. at least GoogleBot would identify itself as a site visitor, but in the meantime they developed a service for websites to comprehensively track their own visitors and where they were coming from and what they were doing on your website. incidentally, you could also put on google's ads on your webpage to earn quite a bit of money, as content relevant ads would be shown through the doubleclick system. this kicked off two things: one, the ability to classify your website visitors into different clusters and segments allowed businesses to start tailoring the appearance of the website or service to fit that specific audience segment, starting off the great fracture - segmentation of the web (in the sense that two people viewing the same website at the same time were not seeing the same thing) two, it created a very strong financial incentive for people to trick google into thinking they were having actual human visitors that would click on ads, when in fact they were bots. in an even funnier twist, some of them were from browser hijackers, commonly known as malware at the time, which google cross-financed. look up download valley and crossrider. at the cross section of the above two, you had one interesting twist: websites that would appear differently to the security bots or the compliance officers of Google as they would to fake visitors or malware jacked human beings. the former would get a benign looking website, while the latter would get bombarded with auto clicking ads. this kicked off the billion dollar arms race called online advertising fraud. I'm not here to shed a tear for big money corps bleeding money. the real fallout lay somewhere else, but for that you have to understand that you never really saw the real internet, you only saw your corner and the one that was personalized for you. but if you ever had the pleasure of watching daytime TVs or off channels and witnessing the ads, you could kind of infer what kind of audience must be watching these shows generally. from quite clear rip offs to magic number lotteries and television fortune telling, these sorts of programming was aimed at the most gullible, bought for pennies, where the smallest audience portion had to be converted into a money making operation. ...and with audience segmentation and data gathering, that was now possible at unprecedented scale, automatically. so big was the scale in fact, that it gave birth to an entire new beast of an industry called affiliate marketing, where instead of a regular payroll, you'd get a cut of the sale should you figure out an angle on where to push whatever fucking bullshit the vendors were offering to whoever the fuck would be dumb enough to click on an ad and buy. (the funniest story I recall was someone pulling five figures a month because he figured out that if you buy ads on anime-hentai pages and sell PUA shit courses and e-books you'd make a killing) at any rate, affiliate marketing brought with it the killer landing page, the thing that's supposed to hammer the nail in the coffin once you get through the banner ad. the earliest form of deceptiveness in memory comes from various pirate sites, that had fake download buttons as banner ads and virus alerts as the landing pages. but then at some point, some schmuck realized that for certain type of products, like diet pills or forex trading or whatever, the best lander is in fact a fake news page that comes packed with comments and all. that would convert like crazy, because it had the appearance of social proof. until at least the lawsuits came raining down, and these sorts of landing pages and campaigns for being banned left right and centre on all platforms. which just launched a new arms race as the campaigns would be disguised for the bots doing the checkups, and aged facebook profiles would start selling for like 5K USD - these people were making 30-40k a day, they could afford to spend that much to continue running the shop. speaking of facebook - it came just about the right time for the shit to brew max total. first they were unprecedented in the amount of data they were getting off of their users, and they came just in time to catch the full swing of what we call the 'responsive web' - that no user at the same time would see the same thing on their page, it was all allocated through an intricate web of recommendations, running real time, based on previously gathered and forecast behavioral data. it also ran on one simple premise: take over the starting page position from google for most people, then they do not have to justify, ever, any ad spend that takes place on their platform, as long as it performs. furthermore, it was completely lacking any revenue share sort of scheme (save for the short period of facebook gaming, see Zynga), thus there was no incentive for the amount of bot traffic that the previous internet era had bred. instead, it came with an entirely different one - bots that would offer social proof in the way of shares and likes, but would not directly risk the business model, thus giving no incentive for facebook to fight them. (note that google didn't do much jack shit either besides indiscriminately penalizing websites it deemed suspicious when they reached critical payout thresholds) the rest of the story you kind of sort of know. how the obama campaign was brilliant in using the new social media to inspire hope and blah blah blah, kicking the door open for big money politics who could hire the best snake oil salesmen in the market, who had the data and as you can see from the above, had the ethical standards of a shoe. at around 2014-2015 the press (the mainstream media) started to raise question about the duopoly, the buzzword of filter bubbles started appearing, not entirely unrelated to the fact that facebook by this time cannibalized their traffic with a fucking embedded share / like button and started charging money for them to reach their own audience. after 2016 the cries of fake news were everywhere, because there was no online space left which everyone was viewing the same way, and you had no way to verify what the person next to you was looking at. since then, we've all become grandpa yelling at the television set, with nobody around us seeing what we're seeing on the screen, so we're being accused as bots and looking for bots under the carpet. but it's been a long way coming, and the bots are honestly the least of our worries. trust me, I went bankrupt over that one. truth or fake doesn't even begin to describe the magnitude of the problem: more like we entered the phase where every word, event or picture is defined by who ever the fuck wins the auction over it, as the marketers of human attention grind the gears of the money mill without even understanding how fast they're digging towards hell. don't believe me? look around the marketing and advertising related subs these days. the priests are eating the indulgences, and we're only now entering the period of deep fakes, good algo generated audio and good enough NLP. and in the meantime, the shadowrunners running up between two corp headquarter-highrises are skinning your belief systems. so the best you can do is really, not litter the remnants of cyberspace which are not being mined, astroturfed or being pulled apart by the algos. no human connections on a nuclear trash heap mate.
I’ve been reading these posts on an off for quite some time now and it saddened me to see someone had recently posted their “I quit the game” statement. We all walk through fire to stand in the green valley...and the journey has to be made on foot. And alone. And it’s tough. In response, I wanted to add a list of pointers for people starting out in this insane game and to address what I’ve learned from over a decade of trading Forex. It’s long-ish but it’s based on reality and not a bunch of meaningless retail junk systems and “insider knowledge” by nitwits on YouTube or some 19-year old “whiz kid” who apparently makes ten billion dollars a week with a mystical set-up that’ll only cost you $1,999 to buy! I became a profitable trader by keeping everything simple. I lost thousands when I started out, but I look back now and realise how easily I could’ve avoided those losses. Keep Everything Simple. For the sake of disclosure, I worked for Morgan Stanley for over a decade in fixed income but learned almost everything I know from the forex guys whom I got to know as good friends. They make markets but there’s still a lot to learn from them as a small fry trader. I got into all this as a hobby after annoying the traders with questions, and all these years later it still pays me. There are still occasional nightmare accidents but they’re far rarer to the point where they don’t affect my ROI. Possibly the most clear statement I could make about Forex trading in the large institutional setting is actually a pretty profound one: Forex traders are not what you think they are: every single forex trader I ever worked with (and who lasted the test of time) had the exact same set of personality traits: 1. NOT ONE of them was a gung-ho high-five loudmouth, 2. Every single one of them analysed their mistakes to the point of obsession, 3. They were bookish and not jocks, 4. They had the humility to admit that many early errors were the result of piss-poor planning. The loudmouths last a year and are gone. Guys who last 5, 10, 20 years in a major finance house on the trading floor are nothing like the absurd 1980s Hollywood images you see on your tv; they’re the perfect opposite of that stereotype. The absolute best I ever met was a studious Irish-Catholic guy from Boston who was conscientious, helpful, calm, and utterly committed to one thing: learning from every single error of judgement. To quote him: “Losing teaches you far more than winning”. Enough of that. These points are deliberately broad. Here goes:
Know The Pairs. It amazes me to see countless small account traders speak as though “systems” work across all pairs. They don’t. Trading GBP/CHF is an entirely different beast to trading CHF/JPY. If you don’t know the innate properties of the CHF market or the JPY or the interplay between the AUD and NZD etc then leave them alone until you do. —There’s no rush— Don’t trade pairs until you are clear on what drives ‘commodity currencies’, or what goes on behind currencies which are easily manipulated, or currencies which simply tend to range for months on end instead of having clear trends. Every pair has its own benefits and drawbacks. Google “Tips on trading the JPY” etc etc etc and get to know the personality of these currencies. They’re just products like any other....Would you buy a Honda without knowing a single thing about the brand or its engine or its durability? So why trade a currency you know nothing about?
Indicators are only telling you what you should be able to see in front of you: PRICE AND MARKET STRUCTURE. Take everything off your charts and simply ask one question: What do I see happening right here and right now? What time frame do I see it on? If you can’t spot a simple consolidation, an uptrend, or a downtrend on a quick high-versus-low time frame scan then no indicator on the planet will help you.
Do you know why momentum indicators work on clear trends but are often a complete disaster on ranges? If not, why not? Do you know why such indicators are losing you tons of trades on low TFs? Do you actually understand the simple mathematics of any indicator? If the answer to these questions is “no” then why are you using these things and piling on indicator after indicator after indicator until you have some psychedelic disco on your screen that looks like an intergalactic dogfight in Star Wars? Keep it simple. Know thy indicator.
Risk:Reward Addiction. The greatest profit killer. So you set up your stops and limits at 1:1.5 or whatever and say “That’s me done” only to come back and see that your limit was missed by a soul-crushing 5 pips before reversing trend to cost you $100, $200, $1000. So you say “Ah but the system is fine”. Guys...this isn’t poker; it doesn’t have to be a zero sum game. Get over your 1:1.5 addiction —The Market Does Not Owe You 50 Pips— Which leads to the next point which, frankly, is what has allowed me to make money consistently for my entire trading life...
YOU WILL NEVER GO BROKE TAKING A PROFIT. So you want to take that 50-pip profit in two hours because some analyst says it’ll happen or because your trend lines say it has to happen. You set your 1:1.5 order. “I’ll check where I’m at in an hour” you say. An hour later you see you’re up 18 pips and you feel you’re owed more by now. “If I close this trade now I could be missing out on a stack”. So what?! Here’s an example: I trade in sterling. I was watching GBP climb against it’s post-GDP flop report and once I was up £157 I thought “This is going to start bouncing off resistance all morning and I don’t need the hassle of riding the rollercoaster all day long”. So I closed it, took the £157, went to make breakfast. Came back shortly afterwards and looked at the chart and saw that I could’ve made about £550 if I’d trusted myself. Do I care? Absolutely not...in fact it usually makes me laugh. So I enter another trade, make another quick £40, then another £95. Almost £300 in less than 45 mins and I’m supposed to cry over the £250 I “missed out on”?
£300 in less than an hour for doing nothing more than waiting for some volatility then tapping a keyboard. It’s almost a sin to make money that easily and I don’t “deserve” any of it. Shut off the laptop. Go out for the day. Does the following sound familiar? “Okay I’m almost at my take-profit...almost!.....almost!....okay it’s bouncing away from me but it’ll come back. Come back, damnit!! Jesus come back to my limit! Ah for F**k’s sakes!! This is complete crap; that trade was almost done! This is rigged! This is worse than poker! This is total BS!!” So when you were 50% or 75% toward your goal and could see the trade slipping away why wasn’t $100 or $200 enough? You need more than that?...really?! So point 6:
Tomorrow Is Another Day. Lordy Lordy, you only made $186 all day. What a disaster! Did you lose anything? Nope. Will the market be open again tomorrow? Yep. Does London open in just four hours? Yep. Is the NOK/SGD/EUR whatever still looking shitty? Yep. So let it go- there are endless THOUSANDS of trades you can make in your lifetime and you need to let a small gain be seen for what it is: ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL PROFIT.
Four or five solid but small profits in a day = One Large Profit. I don’t care how I make it, I don’t care if it’s ten lots of £20, I don’t care if I make the lot in a single trade in 30 seconds either. And once I have a nice sum I switch the computer off and leave it the Fk alone. I don’t care if Brexit is due to detonate the pound or if some Fed guy is going to crap all over the USD in his speech; I’ve made my money and I’m out for the day. There will be other speeches, other detonations. I could get into the entire process by which I trade but it’s aggravatingly basic trend-following mostly based on fundamentals. Losing in this business really does boil down to the same appalling combination of traits that kill most traders: Greed, Impatience, Addiction. Do I trade every day? Absolutely not; if there’s nothing with higher probability trades then I just leave it alone. When I hit my target I’m out for the day- the market doesn’t give a crap about me and I don’t give a crap about the market, if you see my meaning. I played poker semi-professionally for two years and it’s absolutely soul-destroying to be “cold decked” for a whole week. But every player has to experience it in order to lose the arrogance and the bravado; losing is fine as long as you learn from it. One day you’ll be in a position to fold pocket Kings because you’ll know you’re dead in the water. The currency markets are exactly the same in that one regard: if you learn from the past you’ll know when it’s time to get out of that stupid trade or that stupid “system” that sounded so great when you had a demo account. Bank a profit. Keep your charts simple. Know the pairs. Be patient. Touch nothing till you understand it inside out. And if you’re not enjoying the game....STOP PLAYING. [if people find this helpful I might post a thread on the best books I’ve studied from and why most forex books are utterly repetitious bullshit]. Peace.
Before 5 months I came in different country in order to get a better life. My uncle and my aunt have been living there for 30+ years, so I was really happy when they accepted me to live with them. Pretty much in my country I have 1 year of experience in working in forex center, but as what you suppose it’s not really useful in the current situation. So my uncle is super cocky and rude person, really intelligent and always sarcastic with me. He never accepted me as a part of the family and have never treated me like a relative. In my whole life he was telling me to give up my dreams, because with dreams nobody succeeded and says that I probably am saying to myself I will succeed, but this is not how it works, he says. I’ve always been determined to myself, always wanted more and always wanted to be well educated and as well well informed. He is dream killer, killed my dreams with the football, when I was 13 he said that already boys at my age were seen by scouts, so they will play big football, but not me, he killed my dream back then, even though I started since I was 5, I stopped at 17 though, but it was always on my mind. As well in my last job he was saying that nobody become rich from working in forex centers, so I better quit and do something with my hands. I don’t know why he is like that. Anyway, I said he changed and he really wants to help me out, he is giving me a roof, so I am thankful for that. So he has pretty big firm here in Scandinavia and there are 50+ working for him, he is pretty cool with them. I never really enjoyed that job, even though I was doing it. So before a month super bad pain comes in my back. It’s really back, I couldn’t barley walk. He said I am looking for excuses and I should not stop. I went to doc and therapy and they said it’s not good for me to continue doing it, because I have some kind of displacement of my tibia and I need therapy, as well I have something in lower back, which also requires therapy, so the therapist said that at least one or two months I should not go for that job. I asked my uncle and he said I will do something not that heavy, but our working hours are insane, we start at 7 and we finish around 8, and on the final it’s the same pain. So I took a week off and yesterday I asked him should I go to work tomorrow he replied ,, do you have anything better to do here? ‘’ So I am at work again, again in disgusting pain. As well because we live in Scandinavia I decided to start online lessons for the language, because I am really determinnetdd to learn the language, he said it’s a waste of money and I don’t need it, he even started shouting at me why I did it and that I will eventually learn it. How am I supposed to learn it when I don’t have to be around local people who speaks the language and with that job, only with people from my country? I need an advice what to do, as well how can I start something online, so I can make a living here without that? Finding another job is not an option, because I don’t know the language and pretty much everybody do speak English. I am desperate and I really don’t know what to do at that very moment. M 19
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Hi, Sorry in advance for the wall of text! Recently I've tried to add more long term investing to my skills repetoire. I have developed a strategy that provides buy/sell signals based on a weekly time frame for Commodities, Indices, Bonds, and even Forex. Along with this I've created my own system for portfolio optimisation using all assets my broker provides. In tandem this has proven to be a pretty killer combo, from backtesting anyway. I've tried to implement all of this into some forward testing on my demo account but am having issues understanding how to execute everything correctly. To help make it clearer I'll outline the basics of how my system works: Once a week just before weekly candle close, my software will calculate how to best allocate my capital amongst a number of assets - for example, 60% in a US index, 20% in a Euro bond, 20% in Gold - this is assuming my trading system agrees all of these assets are suitable to go long. If for example it deems Gold to not be a good trade, the software will allocate 20% of my capital to the next best thing, Silver for example, then checks against the strategy etc, until everything agrees. Let's assume I have a trading account with $10,000 in and ready to trade/invest. Due to different margin requirements of each asset being traded, and the fact the price of certain indices may exceed $20,000 or so, it's harder than just allocating 60% of $10,000 towards a US index for example. For my more traditional trading, it's easy to calculate position sizes when the risk percentage and distance to stop loss are known. But with the new strategy, no stop loss is calculated and it is only made clear next week once the software and strategy are run whether a current open position needs closing, or if it needs to be increased/decreased in size at all. Therefore my question is how do I determine position size for each asset? My leverage is fixed for the entire account so that can't be variable per trade. I can't allocate a huge amount of my available margin, as worst case I could have a week which results in a relatively large percentage loss and I'd prefer to not get a midweek margin call. With a much larger investing account the maths all makes sense to me, but trying to accomplish all of this with a smaller amount makes the sizing and management of traders much more difficult to figure out in my head. Thanks in advance for any tips/advice. I apologise if a topic similar to this has been brought up previously or if I'm missing something obvious! I hope everything made sense and please let me know if you have any more questions or need any more info on my system etc.
You have a chart in front of you, a buy and sell button respectively, this basically gives you 50% of probability that if you open a buy or sell at any time your action will end up making money after sometime. "Sometime" adds new variables to the game and makes it more complicated: is knowing the direction for sometime, the market needs to move to increase profit or increase loss. You then go into the volatility reports for lets say EURUSD, and you see that during London session and New York session, it's the time where price statistically moves more, so there is where you want to be if you want to day trade (open and close trades in the same day), this can be also noticed if you zoom out for example M5 of almost any pairs, volume will be bigger in this two sessions. Ok so you have statistics of at what times it may move big, you also know that it may not move or it may range the whole day, but definitely there is going to be big moves. If you analyse the past, with only for example a 30 MA, you will see the 50/50. What else do you need? To be in most of the times you are humanly able following the trend, if price is averaging over any average you want and see useful to add, why would you bet that is not going to average oveunder it for some more time? Add a 1000 MA, what if you waited for each cross and traded it trend following? Here then comes a "must": money management = risk = stay in the game for long = you can lose multiple times and long term it's hard that you even lose 10% of your account. Start with the minimum risk, demo in 0.01. Why? If you can consistently win with 0.01 it's just a matter of optimizing the statistics your demo trading over time has thrown, money will come, lots of it, the amount your confidence as a trader can bear and ultimately because trading is so big and involves almost all of the aspects of your life and personality, your confidence as a human being can bear. But this is skipping to psychology. So, volatility, an average of some x periods to get the trend (not of the market but of the x periods in relation to the market and time, x is important, x can't be 2000 in M5), money management and time to play. What else? When will you close the trades? There are multiple ways each one with pros and cons, price crossing the average (too slow sometimes), price hitting fibos (gotta have a method for plotting fibos the same time each time, check the "Do it yourself" section, 61.8 a.k.a 0.618 and 61.8, god made numbers), being this last one the one I like. Price plays with these levels, nothing magical about it, is just "nature", a forgotten and violated term these days IMHO. There it is, when to open with probability, when to close methodically, how to play your money so you last as long as you don't fail too much repeatedly. This results after studying Ralph Elliot's, W Gann's, Wykcoff's, Pesavento's, Gartley's, Carney's and some others WAY TO LOOK AT THE MARKET. They all found structure in price actions over time, they all understood natural patterns that occur, they all sat in front of some charts, used or created tools for handling those charts, in the end everything is so simple and easy that our minds, past, maybe present, the t.v, Instagram won't lets us succeed. Why? Your mind is your biggest enemy of what you want to do in life. How? Your past in someway defines you, defines what you are looking for in life. Psychology, establishment and relativity. Mark Douglas introduced me (in his videos) to a new way of thinking towards trading. He speaks about beliefs, how they drives us in each decision we make each day from as simple as making coffee, having a bath, dressing nice or dressing in the first place. Beliefs are what makes your past define you today and tomorrow if you keep believing them. A wrong belief of yourself, a wrong belief of the world outside your eyes, a wrong belief of the market (you keep trusting other people about the market, in the end after loosing you trust no one), this leads to what lot's of gurus outside the financial world, will say: trust in yourself. Forex gurus tell you to trust them, pay them so they'll unveil the secrets. No money can change your wrong mindset, that feeling in your chest each time you think about possibilities with Forex (euphoria, dangerous as f not only in forex), that belief that some magical indicator will come, some hidden code of some pro advanced indi if you are more realist, some guy with the answer. You are very alone in this world my friend, money will tear countries apart, cities apart, families apart. People will sell their face for some money, their name, in the end corrupt politicians that don't get caught will enjoy their feasts everyday, with their innocent childs, who see their daddy as their hero, this is not a fair world, what's fair in the first place? A human creation so we can live together in peace, but that's not reality we all know. We are evoluted chimps, we still feel what the cheetah feel's in front of his prey, we share 90% of DNA with most of mammals, as intelligent as we like to think we are, we can't delete our nature, our hunger, our fear, our needs, our instinct (the one rushes adrenaline when you know you are losing too much), because deep inside we all know whats right or wrong, the difference between people is whether you hear that voice, or you shut it with a nicer version. 90% of people in forex (not real statistics, the real number varies from broker hmmm brokers another shady topic), prefers the nice version long term, which results not profitable basically. It's your version (you + all gurus you've seen) not the version the market shows and the deep-you tries to alert. I headed far from an important topic: gurus telling to trust them, a killer market killing you, lots of misinformation around the WWW and you not believing in yourself. What else do you have to face the markets? You are in a triangle: broker (not so hard to get a nice one), market and yourself. Everything else is a lie until the person who is in any way selling you stuff, shows you his profitable record of more than 6 months in any financial instrument, that you look at yourself in the mirror and you can say I trust him, not I want to trust him (even if it's some of each, but hey everything involves risk). LOOK AT THE CHARTS. Want to have "fast money" (intraday), look M1 to M30, even H1 for a bird's view, optimize your profitable and consistent demo results to that market; want to look charts once a day, trade D1, I'd say you don't even have to look at something bigger as it is big enough and you can go to H4 or H1 for finesse entries (can become a vicious circle, how much finesse is finesse?). It's all about trust, confidence and a good plan. Psychology of yourself is so vast, and so unique to each person that I would dare to say that if you are looking for the answer outside of you, you better befriend a trader who is today making money and pray that he literally gifts you his confidence (not his knowledge even if it can help, hi will be sharing his confidence). Your social mind will spawn the hype, the euphoria, you will succeed for a while, market will kill you sooner or later, you will help the market to kill your account. Why? Because your confidence wasn't real, it may be that that day, that week the market moved nicely, or you felt strong and super. How many gurus go live and say "hey today, as a human being, I don't feel great, I would not trade today?" none. They say market is not right ATM, cherry picking, they totally exploit that you can't go inside their screens and really know them, here comes the version you want to believe, you will tell yourself anything, you will tell anyone anything. Here to finish, I'll say that consistency in anything in life starts from yourself. If you can't be consistent everyday with yourself for a long period of time, you will find temporary jobs, temporary stuff, you will keep jumping from gurus, from strategies, you will create better versions on your head, just imagine what version a guru must have created to go and sell forex related stuff instead of searching for how to kill the markets, he may be doing both, in the end none of that will give you anything, you will end up being the stair to the gurus goals. Try to comprehend how human we are, how arrogant we are from a farmers perspective, how or evolution results in our minds plays us tricks, to think the government is real, to think there's order, justice, to think that we can achieve huge things with the help of YouTube videos or paying another human being, the market is flow, manipulation is real (why call it manipulation when you would be doing the same in their shoes(big boys)) is part of the nature of anything you plot with Y and X axis (look for a graph of population changes, harmonics, double bottoms, double tops, in a population changes graph? how can that be?), it may be a cliche but is aaaaaaall an illusion guys, the truth is not good business for the other side of the trades. See you on the other side. "I'll be a big noise with all the big boys"
Hello guys i hope this story is not going to take your time more than 10 mintues, but believe me every second will be worth of it. So i wanted to share my story of 1year nofap, my life before starting nofap, while i was on nofap the good, the bad … i started this challenge 23 august 2018 and to be honest with you guys it was hard and somehow i failed. Yes i did ejaculate , yes i did edge and hell yes i watched porn but i still saw some benefits and still learned something. But before i continue with my story i want to tell you that the reason why i want to share my story with you is because i don’t see people posting videos that they failed on this journey at least maybe on their 1st attempt, they all seem like they are succeeding on their first attempt, and i am not saying that is not possible, but i want to support guys who started the journey and they failed just like me. so here we go… i started my journey on 23.august.2018 and i still remember my last time that i watched porn hard before starting this journey and that happened 2 days before i started nofap.( I remember masturbating and than feeling really low energy and i started searching on youtube if Masturbating kills your gains, or does masturbating effects your growth of muscles, because i was a person who wanted to have a nice body and i used to workout at the gym but i wasn’t building muscles or gaining weight. I am 187 cm or 6.1 foot long and i was always a skinny guy, i had 75-78 Kg average not to skinny but not even like a regular person compared to how i was trying to lift. So after searching on youtube i found nofap challenge, and believe me i was so interested to know about this nofap challenge so i watched a ton of nofap videos that are on youtube and i saw many people explaining the dark side of masturbating and watching porn and the life changing benefits that you can get from NOFAP/NOPMO … and that is the moment where i realized that porn and masturbating made my life shit, i had anxiety, i was very very very unconfident guy, i was low energy, not motivated, not having balls to approach any girl that i liked etc…. So before talking to the benefits that i have seen or i have felt i will tell you shortly how my life was 3-4 years before i started nofap. I was in a relationship with a girl in my high school since march 2012 until we broke up on november 2016, just trying to explain shortly… so 4 years in a relationship, but on our 3rd year things were getting wrong, we were not happy with our relationship and many other relationship problems, but i remember on that year i used to watch porn a lot, and i remember after going out with her, whenever i came back at home i used to watch porn and masturbate, somehow i wasn’t feeling the joyful moment with her compared to how i was feeling with porn. And almost 1 year later we broke upppp, so my point of this story is that porn destroyed my relationship, within a year, porn it’s a slow killer and you just won’t notice it, you see things in life not going well but you will never notice its because of porn, as much as depressed you are as much as porn you are going to look. Because that;s the only thing that can make your dopamine get higher, or maybe it is the only thing that takes your problems away for a short period of time. I remember i was trying to study hard for my exams, i was in faculty of mechanical enginnering but everytime i was trying to learn more than 1 hour i was feeling very sleepy and very low energy, so every time i was feeling low energy i used to watch porn and masturbate, i didn’t know that porn was the problem, I was just bored and low energy so i decided let’s watch some porn. I continued like this for more than 1/2 year Until i ended on youtube looking for masturbating side effects and ended up finding NOFAP. By the way since i broke up with my girlfriend i never had any other girlfriend, i liked a girl on my university but because of anxiety i was never able to approach her, even though she semmed to like me but still i had no balls to talk to her even when we were walking in front of each other in the opposite direction, and guess what ? She is in a relationship now and i really felt bad when i saw her with her boyfriend walking and holding their hands together. I said to myself, look what porn did to me, look what you lost because of anxiety and being so unconfident, i really felt like a failure a really sad moment…. but at least i was able to graduate from my university. Soo now let’s start telling you about my nofap journey. But before i start ,if you start nofap you have to have goals or ask yourself what is your goal to achive with nofap/nopmo, why are you doing this ? If your answer is because i am bored with my life, i want a better life … It’s okey but have goals first, because if you start with no goals you may be on a 2 months strike and if you are not having any benefit, you will quit. My goal on nofap is to increase confidence. THATS IT… Why confidence? Because being confident is all you need. Girls loveee confident guys, in fact everybody loves confident people. And as i am a forex trader, confidence is much much needed when trading. So i started my nofap challenge on 23.august.2018, it was great on my first 5-6 days, because i could go without ejaculating for 4-5 days even when i was not doing nofap. But after day 7 i started feeling the need of masturbating, and instead of masturbating i started edging, i was touchin my dick and using my imagination and i was able to feel good … So after day 7, almost every day i was edging but i was not feeling the need of looking at porn and i said myself why do people struggle so much getting rid of porn? It was easy for me not to look at porn on that first month. No changes, not even feeling anything better, the only change i saw was Women attraction. Yes even though i was not feeling anything better inside me, not even looking better anything, girls/womans were looking at me, they were turning they head to look at me and i said to myself wooow, how i am attracing girls/boys/people/mean/woman without feeling anything better. But it was because of holding my sement on my body and not ejaculating. So if you don’t throw/waste that sement, if you don’t throw it away, girls-womans even guys will look at you more, they will feel your power. Guys will say wow he is cool, and womans will say wow he is a real man. That’s just the point of why sement makes you more attractive to people, it makes you more masculine, but the benefit of sement preservation doesn’t stop here, belive me since i started nopmo i started gaining wheight, i was skinny and people that are fat when they start nopmo they are more likely to lose weight, so benefits in both people skinny or fat it doesn’t matter, i am more powerful at gym, my knees don’t crackle like they used to… and do you know why ?? Because of that powerfull minerals, vitamins, nutritions that we used to through it cheaply with masturbation.. now is hold and used in my body. So the first benefit was women attraction… So my second benefit is actually not masturbating, and if you are saying wtf is this guy saying, just think for a second, I am not wasting my time every day for 1 hour to watch porn, opening multiple tabs of porn to watch, i am using that time on other stuff to do , so that is a worth mentioning benefit. My third benefit was that i had more energy to do things, and more power to train harde lift heavier. Before i finish, i found my key to not watch porn anymore and not edge or masturbate. I don’t know how much you guys are religious buy i made a promise to god, that i won’t ever watch porn and masturbate anymore. (I know it sound dumb to some people but since that day i never even thought of doing POM because i would feel so shame on myself that i broke my promise to god for a short imagination of happiness). Before i started nofap my confidence on a scale from 0 to 10 was -8, yeap -8 so unconfident… And now that i am on nofap my confidence is like -3… still not confident but i won;t give up. I know good days will come ! On my photos RED cross means (Realpse, sometimes with Porn), a weat dream is with a blue circle or a sleepy emoji. Little suggestion: Stop getting to day 0 after a relapse, just continue the journey just like i did, and you will get to a point that you will look and will say “I only relapsed 3 times last month compared to when i was on PMO and that’s a good sign of a good life that will come to you”. If you are horny and you want to relapse, just think how shit your life is. Try it and feel like a piece of shit and remember that moment, so when you get horny again after a long streak just remember how you felt last time after a relapse, and that will make you to go stronger. Lastly even when you see and feel the benefits, this NoPMO lifestyle it’s so hard when you have urges so you don’t even care about benefits, but if you resist you will level up my friend. It’s up to you guys ! STAY STRONG https://preview.redd.it/f2utcp0z1si31.png?width=3000&format=png&auto=webp&s=616e7e5f2a5ce7a05c9372cd74b40fa0cc244d13 https://preview.redd.it/gb0akm0z1si31.jpg?width=1920&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b51c1daddfa0367e14bf17e609d2b6e0f0cf2700
Dear Traders, My name is Ludovico and I am an associate of Horizon Trading team. Today, I would like to share with you a scalping technique that will give you an advantage in following price action fluctuations. Most importantly, this article will focus on fast timeframes trading tactics, how to spot important key levels and trigger your positions. So, do scalping and price action go well together? Considering that price action aims to predict what price is doing right now and where is heading, fast mindset and quick analysis become crucial; scalp trading is about the same thing. A scalp trade will take approximately 1 to 30 minutes, so to be effective and consistent in this discipline one must be reacting rapidly to price movements. Therefore, scalp requires quick analysis, quick responses and quick decisions, and at its core there is price action, which as well is all about speed and efficiency. Now let s move on today’s topic on how to steadily understand fast trading potential earning set ups and to become a killer scalper.
What is scalping trading?
Scalping is a trading style that specialize in profiting off small price changes. It requires high level of concentration, because, due to its speed, a trader must have a strict entry exit strategy, otherwise one large loss could cancel all the many small gains in a blink of an eye. The main features of scalping are: Less exposure, lesser risk: A smaller exposure to price fluctuation will reduce the odds to run into adverse events. Smaller moves are easier to forecast: Because like every market forex works on principles of supply and demands, a higher imbalance is needed to generate bigger price changes. Smaller fluctuations are more regular than wider ones: Even in days when markets tend to less volatile, working with smaller timeframes such as (M1, M5, M15 & M30) will still grant chance of earning more frequently. While swing trading relies on big price moves, therefore aiming for long trend following a scalper will trade that fluctuation continuously. Price action comes into play here, a solid scalp trader must be very aware of level of support and resistance and when the price could bounce off. See image Below: Figure 1: Support & Resistance, XAUUSD, M1, (23rd July 2019 In order to better find these areas a comparison between timeframes is necessary considering that is always advantageous to highlights the most recent zones of support & resistance (2 to 5 previous days) Once understanding levels strategy become easier to follow, let’s find out.
Simple scalping and Horizon X scalping pattern
When trading trends continuously, important is to gauge market signals which indicate the trend is strong, opening to new potential earning scenarios for investors. When noticing price is coming back to retest important key levels forming pullbacks, a trader should always look out for entry-points.
Scalp traders must focus on key resistance and support level to find entry point while trading pullbacks. Here at Trading Academy we developed a system, based on fast moving price action that will enable traders to have successful daily session. We based our method on understanding where big money players come into action and by following their liquidity volume open winning positions. Horizon X is based on several scalping price patterns which find their fundamentals in risk and money management, key levels and entry points. See image below: Figure 2:Scalp trading pullbacks, XAUUSD, M1, (23rd July 2019) In the picture above I highlight the principle of trading pullbacks in M1 timeframe, this method relies on entering the market in specific hot spot key levels. Even though many traders globally do not take into consideration risk management, our vision is that while scalp trade, investors should follow clear objective rules to be effective, here is one of our coral patterns and its trade management rules.
Horizon X Pattern #3
This pattern aims to gauge momentums, big money players moves, consisting in fast formation of large body candle sticks (black bearish/white bullish) Figure3: Pattern #3 configuration To be formed Pattern #3 require several steps to be accomplished by the market before we can enter our position with confidence:
When price level is broken out at consolidation level big buyers make the move dragging price level on a rally, usually between 10-15 PIPS (as the image above suggests).
Large candles (bodies)
Mostly of one colour (back/bearish, white/bullish)
Candles close its high/lows of the move
Within this first part price level is conditioned by the presence of many buyers on one side and sellers on the other stabilizing the price in a narrow range while building up important structure.
Small candles, at least 3
Greater mix between white/black or bullish/bearish candles
Second Momentum (breaking the price level at consolidation) – can be bearish or bullish depending on scenario)
When price level is broken out at consolidation level big buyers make the move dragging price level on a rally, usually between 10-15 PIPS (as the image above suggests).
Large candles (bodies)
Mostly of one colour (back/bearish, white/bullish)
Candles close its high/lows of the move
Price is coming back to retest level at the previous consolidation level and when fractal is formed market is giving investors hints that a good spot to open a position is coming up.
Small candles, at least 3
Greater mix between white/black or bullish/bearish candles
Entering the market
Pattern #3 can be traded by entering the market within the retesting price area at consolidation level, however the tactics would be based more on aggressivity of trader personality and behaviour. In this booklet we will describe the most commonly used one. Entering in consolidation structure Market needs more liquidity for further movement and is going deeper toward the structure taking stop losses of weak traders. Smarter investors, however, use these stop losses for their position gaining, entering the market when a fractal is formed. See image below: Figure 4: Pattern #3, entering market at consolidation structure, USDCHF H1 (22nd July 2019) Entering at consolidation boarder Price touches edges of consolidation and starts to reverse. We would like to open position when fractal is formed. See image below: Figure 5: Pattern #3, market entry at consolidation border, GBPUSD M1 (14th Mar 2019)
Entering after false break out
Severe stop-loss testing. Big players move price aggressively till the point that it breaks consolidation structure. This is a perfect situation for major traders to enter the market, pushing the price towards its original direction. We will conservatively open trade when the price level reaches back consolidation, forming a fractal. See image below: Figure 6: Pattern #3, market entry after false break out, GBPUSD M1 (6th June 2019)
Similarly, we can use 4 elementary exit strategies of our Horizon X Pattern #3.
We will aim for a high structure level from higher timeframes (very good as a second take profit).
For 1-minute timeframe we will take half of our position with 10 points profit as a target and put our stop-loss on break-even for the rest of the position.
Our take profit is based on having ATR 80 %.
Rule of safety. Our first take profit is set to risk-reward ratio 1:1 with a half of position. When the take profit is hit, we are in a risk-free position for the second target.
On the other hand, stop losses will be always places on top of the entry structure to avoid important losses which will likely vanish all the trader day effort.
Greetings! I just have a few questions regarding finance and wanted to see if anyone had some input/wisdom/advice that helped them when they had similar issues. I don't expect anyone to go into detail or anything, but Im sorta lost at this point and had a feeling coming here might be helpful... So, if you decide to read & post I want to say in advance THANK YOU! I know you have better things to do with your time so I SINCERELY appreciate your time and input, I cant stress this enough. Ill try to keep this brief but it is a few questions and they cover a broad spectrum of topics, situations and variables, Im trying to keep it as simple as possible...just "big picture" or "general idea" answers would suffice, I can fill in the details and do the leg work, I just need help being set in the right direction or frame of mind from people who have done it. So some quick, basic info that might help you guage what kinda input to give... Im 25 years old, I am unmarried with no kids and no plans to get married or have kids. I have a longtime girlfriend but we share the same sentiment about marriage and kids ( Thank God ;p ) I live in my fathers home rent free while he spends the next few years in his RV across the states, until then I have a great opportunity to save money that would otherwise go to rent. As of this moment, I am unemployed but that will change pretty soon.... I don't have any degrees...I don't have a savings account but I opened a Stash app account where I keep money in stocks and bonds, it has around $2000 in it. I live in Boise Id, im open to moving but would prefer not to. Boise isn't a large city, theres not much opportunity here. I have no other obligations currently that would interfere with any suggestions. With that being said, here is where I am at.... Ive always wanted to work for myself since I was young. After almost a decade in the work force its become painfully clear that its what I need to be doing. Ive also undergone a drastic mindset regarding the spending of my money, as little as 6 months ago I was spending money on WORTHLESS crap I didn't need compulsively. Maybe Ive matured, but I have been trying so hard to break this mindset, however, old habits die hard... As my thoughts have been geared more towards working for myself and saving money, Ive also thought about passive income/ investing as well. ENTREPENEURS=> I am curious what you guys did when you first started? I have the drive, the work ethic, the intelligence and will to succeed but I fall short in the first step which is an idea...somewhere to start. Buying something and selling it? Cleaning pools? Obviously Im not going to go buy a Pizza Hut as I lack the capital so I need ideas for small scale, low overhead and expense projects that I can grow off of and branch out of...What I have done is turn my aquarium hobby into a little side income, I breed Cherry Shrimp and sell them, I am going to post on eBay and see how it goes and possibly expand on that. That's the one and only idea Ive had. Its not that I am stupid, Ive always had a high IQ and all, but I think I tend to doubt myself too much, overthink 5 steps ahead...I digress, anyway, I am great with people, Ive worked and done well in a wide range of jobs as well....I don't have to enjoy the work itself, I still care about doing the job well and helping the company so I am open to a wide range of suggestions. Desk work, sales work, whatever. Im just curious what got beginning entrepreneurs started off and how did you get and find ideas? Its this block in my head...its so stupid, I cannot come up with the initial idea. Once I do get an initial idea, its off to the races. I build off of it, make it efficient, reinvest profits, strategize how to expand, the trick is finding the idea. All the stuff I do manage to think of seems inefficient and like it wouldn't work. I hate asking for charity so I sincerely offer compensation if someone wanted to really sit down and exchange some emails and help me get on the path to success...Im realistic as well, Im not expecting someone to hand me the blueprints to a company, just advice on how to find ideas on my own. SAVING=> I was bad with money until about 10 months ago, Id spend it as quick as I got it. On stupid shit too, wow I get mad at myself thinking about it. The problem is, despite wanting and trying to change I find myself still doing this, let me give an example to show you what I mean: I go to PetSmart to get Cat Food. As im driving there I mentally know I don't need anything else and don't want too waste money. In and out. After years of blowing money on crap I never use its getting old, ya know? I get into the store, get the cat food and without even realizing it my brain pulls a sneaky on me, it says, "I know you wont buy anything, but lets at least look at fish while were here.". Its like it has its own agenda, it knows if it can trick me into going over, Ill end up buying fish and I do. Its ridiculous. Had a big problem with clothes for a while too, and when I was younger im ashamed to admit, pain killers :/ . Obviously, I struggle with instant gratification and compulsive buying. Has anyone else had to break this habbit? I have the desire to, a little guidance would be a blessing...a mind trick, meditation, hiding your money ( LOL ) , any weird little tips or tricks that may have helped you would be helpful! INVESTING & PASSIVE INCOME=> I suppose this goes back to working for myself and saving combined... but I wanted to touch on it specifically... Am I trying to juggle too much? I mean, if Im trying to start off being an entrepreneur is it wise to put money into long term investment options? Should I keep my capital liquid incase I need it for investment opportunities? What are some ways you've invested? Did you hire a broker or DIY? I installed Stash, Robin Hood and the Forex Game... Right now Im using Stash as my savings account ( It is giving me more interest than ANY checking acct haha ). seems its better off to invest my money myself on apps, or keep it liquid for opportunities...I hope Im making sense. As you can see, I am over thinking this and wanna see what other people did/ would do in their mid 20s. Worth mentioning that I don't do half bad investing myself...I just do Blue Chips and high dividend bonds. I really don't do anything more than a "Moderate" risk, I put my money into companies I know wont fail: Berkshire Hathaway, Boeing, Johnson&Johnson, GE, Pfizer. For me, its doing well. Im not taking big risks, Im viewing it as a savings account and I always reinvest dividends. Basically, im just trying to get my life straight. Im also trying to develop better lifestyle habits too, not staying up late, eating healthy, drinking enough water and stuff like that. Maybe I am trying to think about too much and should just do 1 thing, problem is, IDK what that 1 thing should be!! I feel like I waited 25 years to be responsible so Im getting all the stress from trying to break years and years of slacking and bad habbits . I don't have any friends that I can talk to about this stuff which is another area of my life I need to improve on. I am so tired of associating with unintelligent losers with no drive. Im afraid that I wasted 25 years of my life. I know this was a mess, I apologize. Just wanna stress Im not expecting anyone to read & respond to all of this. I was just hoping someone who could relate to an area of this could share some experience they had, just a sentence or two even. The more detail the better but I realize im asking perfect strangers to spend their time to be my life coach lol. Thank you, thank you thank you thank you.
First off, let me state that I am not even close to a professional when it comes to trading. I got in a few months ago for passive income from copying 3.14fx and have come a long way since then, quadrupling my initial investment and losing half of it. I've watched traders such as cfdtrader, Lumyo, Robot, and crypto_chris lose several hundred percent after a fail from opening multiple positions. I got into 1broker to make money without monitoring it, but instead I learned a lot about trading and risk management, even profiting off several of my own trades. It's a valuable experience in itself even if you're not profiting and I wouldn't give it up for anything. If these losses are enough to make you quit, so be it. Investing comes with risks that some people can't handle. It's not free money. https://www.dailyfx.com/calendar is the economic calendar that I use while trading. High importance events can easily trigger a 80% loss or gain depending on the direction you choose. It's highly risky to trade when someone of great importance such as Draghi or Yellen are speaking. Even if you follow a general MAX 5% rule, you will still lose up to 16% of your account if somebody opens 4 of the same positions and they stop at 80%. Making back money is also tougher than losing it, as once you lose 16% of your account, 5% of your account is a lot less than before. Therefore, you have less capital per trade. Also, be careful when changing your copy amount. I often see copiers saying things like "Great work, I'm upping my copy amount" and "Increased copy amount from x to x". In my opinion, increasing a copy amount should only be done when your initial amount is already low. Losses on a higher copy amount may wipe out the gains on a smaller copy amount. (-50% loss with 0.1 btc = +100% gains with 0.05 btc) Always stick to a 5% max rule unless you're feeling risky. Then, there comes the gambling/greed phase that many new copiers often do. (Guilty of this myself). After extreme success, a copier may feel the need to upgrade their copy reward to maximize profit. Or after extreme failure, a copier may feel they need to upgrade their copy reward to make up for losses. All of these are mistakes. 1broker is not filled with market professionals. Most of us here are either self taught or complete novices. Professionals would not be sharing their trades for about $70-80 for each trade (at best). They won't be asking for copiers on other traders' profiles. They won't be using a Pikachu as their profile picture. They won't be using a broker that isn't heavily regulated and insured. They would be using their own capital to make millions off of trades. Remember, any newbie can easily accumulate winning trades by gambling with high leverage. As long as they have around $1300 as of now, they can easily create a profile that suggests that they are a professional, when in reality they are entering at random points and exiting when a position turns into profit, rather than using technical analysis and watching economic calendars. And even the best of traders will have their ups and downs. I've stuck with 3.14FX even when he reached -100% this month because he's had a great history on this site. I feel that he can make the money that he loses back. And even though he has doubled up on a position yesterday (not sure why, probably was extremely confident), it was a success. Can you really trust anyone? No way! Unlike regular trading, 1broker is more unregulated. Signing up requires no personal information so any user with malicious intent can build up a steady reputation and perform an exit scam (or have a massive failure) without any reparations. Robot has no link to any social media or anything in his profile. For all we know, he could own another account that has -100%, and he is depending on luck while opening multiple positions to accumulate followers. (I just used Robot as an example, my intent is not to accuse him of multiple accounts) Then there are potential exit scams (from a trader, not 1broker itself) that will drain a decent portion of your account. There's a reason why you have a choice to choose how many trades maximum you can copy per day. This hasn't happened yet, but it will definitely happen in the foreseeable future. Somebody will set up an order for 50 shorts and 50 longs and set the take profit and stop loss the opposite of each other. Then after closing, they'll withdraw their bitcoin never to be heard of again. When you put your trust in a trader, you should trust them to carefully monitor a trade. Unfortunately, there's currently no way to tell if your copied trader is online or not, so you'll never know if they're in a coma and won't be back for another 6 months. My suggestion is to either take profit when you think that the conditions are correct or just trust the trader. Nobody can see the future. If you think that you'll rather close the trade before the weekend, it's your choice. If you think upcoming news will destroy the trade, feel free to close early. However, be prepared for regret if it goes up, or a great feeling that you dodged a bullet if it goes down. It's all a part of trading. 1broker's copy system is seriously flawed at the moment. Of course, there's no easy way to fix it. Why would a great trader want to share one of their trades if they're not getting much out of it? This encourages opening multiple positions to maximize copy rewards, which can result in massive losses. Robot is one of the traders exploiting this. So how can you prevent massive losses? There's really no way. You're putting your trust in random people without an identity, who can easily be a scammer. When it comes to people like Robot, I put 1-2% of my funds because I know that he opens multiple positions. This is why I'm always sticking with 3.14FX, he established himself a long time ago and he knows what he is doing. Somebody who has been on the platform for over 3 years with several losses is preferable to an anonymous newcomer who just registered but appears to be good at trading. Also, the percentage on 1broker is misleading. You may think "Wow, I'm going to get an 500% of my initial investment if I copy Lumyo!" In reality, you should only be using 5% max of your capital per trade. If you copied him from the beginning (I started copying at around 90%), you should have only gained 25% rather than 500%. But still, 25% of your initial investment is huge.
My opinion on several traders
vits2015: If you watched vits2015 from the beginning, you would know that their style of trading is... off. 15 positions on UK100, all short, some of them at -30% when I first saw him as a successful trader. What does that tell me about him? He can open up to 6 positions on the same trade at once, and is willing to hold them as long as possible to get a profit. (Average holding time 8 days) gtfann: Even with recent losses, he still appears to be a decent trader. It seems that he upped his usual leverage due to the crowds of traders flocking to copy him though. Multiple positions with a lower leverage isn't really something that I like either, but I'm sticking with him for now until there's a drastic change. vaiono: He lets his losses play out and even though he has a decent track record,it's still risky to play with. Silver is extremely volatile and due to leverage, a small move in any direction can either be a huge loss or huge gain. Snortex: Pretty much a meme on 1broker. He acknowledges his trading style and warns his copiers. I like him as a person due to his warnings, but still wouldn't recommend copying him unless you can afford to lose a lot. Edit: After examination of his trades, I feel like he's not only gambling like his description suggests. His entries are planned out carefully (Although that has hurt him when there was a flash crash). You'll take several 80% losses but you may take several 400% gains. He seems to have a habit of chasing a trade, which can lead to multiple 80% losses. However, once the trend reverses, his profits go through the roof. When you're copying, copy for the long term! Of course, feel free to uncopy if you feel that the bottom is still far away. noIDea: He has had bad stretches in the past, but still makes his way back. I think he's a good trader and even though he opens multiple positions, he's one of the best at setting stop losses so the risk is not as high as others who open multiple trades. Gold_Gangsta: Name change from Crypto Chris for some reason? Be wary of multiple positions as the USDJPY fiasco shows. Seems to be doing fairly well with gold as of now. 1monk2: Multiple positions fairly often, even says that he's drunk in the description. This is gambling. knightlife999: The description definitely shows promise. There is no proof to those claims on the site, but I feel it's safe to allocate some of your funds toward copying him with his track record. HedgeCryFx Risk 5: Decent trader, pays attention to economic calendar as well. The only problem is that he lets losses play out to 80% boogi: I would be wary about the higher losses, but then again, there's a good track record. sergiomc: Seems to be decent at trading stocks. With an average holding time of 14 days and leverage of 10, you should be expecting to lose about ~3.92% of your gains to financing, which is not actually that much. Cool Hand Luke: Low leverage trading. If you were to copy him, I would recommend only using 1% or 2% of your account max per trade if you plan on copying others as well. He's a great trader for slow steady gains, but if you're looking to get rich fast or go broke trying, this is not the guy for you. eylemc: Quick trades with minimal profit and no losses so far. As of now, it may be too early to judge, but I think that he's somebody that might be worth copying. Edit: Seems to let losses play out to 80%. Be wary. 3.14fx: Back in the game, doing well with stocks and USDJPY recently. High leverage, but usually stops losses within a reasonable range. SunnyNet: Small gains, huge losses. Be wary as your first copied trade could easily be a -80%. SatoshiReport: Trading using a neural network, after looking deep into the trade history, I'm not so sure about it. Correct me if I am wrong, but the bot doesn't take into account important news and events. Edit: This bot has too many flaws to continue copying in my opinion. Even with the previous gains, it opens the same position as soon as one closes, negating the 33% stop loss AND forcing a loss due to the spread. The only thing that keeps it out of the negative is the rare 80% gains that you might find once in a while. CryptoMessiah: The image being shown on his twitter has weird numbers on it (USDJPY at 100-103 in the matter of minutes), I think it's a simulator so it isn't actually "proved". Also, asking people to copy for "free money" is misleading as anything can go wrong in the forex market, there is no guaranteed money. I copied with a minimum 0.001 btc and will update this post if the bot proves to be successful. Edit: Tons of losses trying to get the right direction and then huge wins. I would say it's ok, but you're better off with a human capitalizing on gains. The only advantage to this bot is 24/7 hour trading. kosanet: His description says it all. Be careful while copying, but don't be discouraged to place an amount you can afford to lose. He seems to have a great history of monitoring losses (positions never get below 20%) but it's still a new profile who clearly states that he's not a pro. May open multiple trades and trading with USDJPY a lot. His scalping strategy means that overnight fees won't be an issue. Edit: Now he's starting to be a little more risky with his trades as more copiers arrive. Be careful, he never reached liquidation at 80% yet but he could at any moment. google: A bit late to the party, but what can I say? I honestly can't believe he accumulated 190 copiers but he seems to have faded out quickly. Golgo13 is having a fun time on all of his trades KillerWhale: Extremely high risk with all of those multiple positions. Like google and robot, don't be fooled by performance recently and look through their whole account. People who saw the 220% recently may have missed when he was in -475% a few days ago. SoontobeWW3: Great trader in my opinion. However, I think emotion plays a role in his trading as every huge loss is often followed by more. APPoh: Seems to know what he's doing. However, there is a very short trading history and we're never sure. Positions can reach 50% without closing, so it's very possible that he might let losses play out to 80%. dingo: Not much to say. Good with 1 position at a time, and even with the 80% loss last month, still ended in profit. Be careful as he might sometimes not stop a position and instead wait for it to recover and a 80% loss is huge compared to his gains. Edit August 12: Will stop adding new traders now. Before copying someone, remember:
Check their trading history, ALL OF IT. You're entrusting them with your money, you should be 100% sure.
Wait until they've established themselves. Sure, you can be frustrated about potentially losing 200% profit, but it sure beats 700% losses.
I already expressed my views on Robot and 3.14FX above. Lumyo is currently inactive. Last tip: Don't uncopy people if you feel like they can make it back. If you choose to copy someone, you're in it for the long run. Now this may contradict some of my earlier statements, but if you have somebody that you believe in, don't uncopy them after a loss. Eventually, they will make their way back up and after you see their success again, you'll be tempted to copy again. Of course, if you are copying somebody who you have no faith in, feel free to drop them. Cutting your losses short is important to learn in trading.
It feels like we’re about month six into an indefinite branding war with the mainstream financial community and even some of our own over whether bitcoin per se, or blockchain technology (sans deflationary currency) is the winning fintech innovation from 2009. And admittedly, there are good arguments against bitcoin becoming a legitimate currency — or even a rails of payments used by anyone who prefers to keep their bank account intact and stay on the right side of the law. For instance, there is still institutional fear that the technology is infeasible to use for payments because it’s impossible to reverse charges, and difficult to surveil the bitcoin network for bad actors and black market transactions (both problems seem solvable by bitcoin startups). There is wariness to buy-in to the “bitcoin as a backbone” argument where institutions hide the currency and use the tech and its token behind the scenes, mainly because bitcoin is still (according to its own chief scientist) in a beta release. The security of the network is still relatively weak, and hundred billion dollar multi-nationals aren’t going to invest in a network that might cease to exist in five years without any clear contingency plans. As a Bitcoin permabull, these short term challenges don’t bother me. But I list them because they are rational concerns and ones that will take years to quell at an institutional level. In the meantime, you’ll see dabbling in alternative protocols like Ripple and Stellar and Ethereum and Hyperledger, and (gasp) these same institutions will even fork open-source code and make it their own. (Michael Lewis writes in Flash Boys about the laughable degree to which Goldman makes open-source code their own “IP”.) I think Tim Swanson’s paper nailed it (for the most part) and that this experimentation with blockchain-not-bitcoin is perfectly fine. Bitcoin might not ultimately make it as a currency in the world’s largest economies, and it might prove to be a pretty poor store of value if its corresponding tech is relegated to second-tier status in favor of a more government/bank friendly protocol. With that in mind, competition is healthy and new ideas are welcome when it comes blockchain tech, I think. But there is a huge caveat. The longer that bitcoin survives, the more likely it is to disrupt a large swath of developing economy currencies. I’m increasingly convinced that Wences et al have been right all along with bitcoin as a value store (reserve) emerging as its hidden-in-plain-sight killer app. In a stroke of irony, we might be looking at 50–50 odds that bitcoin’s character arc goes from cryptoanarchist currency, to commodity that powers 1.0 financial technology, and back to functional currency reserve for much of the developing world. And if that’s where it settles for the medium-term, it would still be a phenomenal outcome. Consider: Bitcoin inflation slows to ~4% by 2017 — reasonable by most any economist’s modern standards and not too far off of the target thresholds for most central banks. This is also a predictable 4%. Yes, that figure belies the forex swings that bitcoin will inevitably experience as a young currency, but the rate of seignorage will still be quite low. And less new bitcoin money creation will inevitably reduce sell-side pressure from miners as a percentage of total network transactions. That could and probably will help the market stabilize enough to price more and cheaper derivatives to hedge out volatility for those who don’t want it. Consider: Most developing economy currencies suck, and will be debased into oblivion within two decades, if not much sooner. If you believe your current currency has a 50% chance of being completely destroyed in the next ten years, and think bitcoin has a 50% chance of being alive at all, it makes sense to buy bitcoin with your less sexy currency. It probably only takes one country to start buying bitcoin for their central bank (as if it’s gold), for others to follow suit in rapid succession. (FWIW, Gyft’s Vinny Lingham, who has proven to have an uncanny knack for picking the price trends that matter, agrees with me.) Consider: Dozens of countries around the world already operate on a two currency system with the US dollar as a viable alternative to their local options. Economists’ dismissiveness of bitcoin as a potential reserve currency on the grounds that “governments and their central banks would never cede that kind of monetary control” ignores pretty much all of the evidence that already exists which shows how it is an extremely rare luxury to live in a country with a central bank that has any flexibility whatsoever with respect to monetary policy. i.e. if a country’s central bank stores dollars and gold, it might like BTC. Consider: Not even the US dollar is likely to be the world’s reserve currency in 20 years. I have begged on social media for some smart economist to refute this, but none have so far. It’s easy to look at our surging economy and think “we’re still the best”, but China’s economy will dwarf our own by 2040. India will likely eclipse us as well. And its a slam dunk that frontier markets will continue to command a larger chunk of the global GDP pie. (Europe is still probably screwed.) In a world where the US is the second or third largest economy in the world and commands 15% of its GDP rather than 25%, who honestly thinks the greenback is going to be the only currency reserve? (That’s not rhetorical, by the way. Send me a counter-argument and I’ll reprint it.) If all that is true, then it follows: In a world where even the mack daddy of all fiat reserve currencies is dethroned, and a neutral, stable, predictable alternative exists, some countries are going to start taking a chance on bitcoin. It really only takes one successful experiment to create a domino effect, and those tier II (and III and IV) government currencies will collectively fade to black. The longer bitcoin survives, the longer we have to build the robust infrastructure to support a fully functional bitcoin ecosystem that could swoop in to support an entire small country. All we need to do is stay heads down and wait for one regional storm to brew in a world that is frankly already plagued by currency wars. In a stroke of irony, policymakers and Keynesian economists might finally see the “bancor” global reserve currency that their idol John Maynard Keynes proposed 80 years ago. Only it will sneak up on them from the frontier. And it will be completely beyond their control.
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